La próxima generación de Internet
La primera cosa a entender sobre la nueva generación de Internet es que-Parton mi francés-no hay uno.
Sí, tenemos un triple de una vez-en-uno-curso de la vida llevan a celebrar en nuestro conteo actual del año. Así que la tentación es grande para disponer de algún tipo de nueva spiffy internet Milenio. El problema es que el Internet ha sido diseñado para evolucionar en muchas capas de forma independiente. Así que no hay una única Internet de próxima generación.
A veces, el Internet evoluciona tan rápidamente que incluso las generaciones sucesivas de la misma capa pasarse unos a otros. Y a veces se desarrolla tan lentamente que confundimos el temporal permanente.
Durante un tiempo, el marcador de acciones se llevó a creer que en Internet se puede dar todo con tal de que te atrajo ojos para vender a los anunciantes. Bueno, como espero que lo vio durante el choque lunes 8 de noviembre de 1999, Wall Street Finalmente vio que la publicidad en Internet no puede pagar por todo. Usted tiene que haber aumento de los ingresos de acceso, transporte, servicios, contenidos y transacciones.
Por supuesto, si el mercado de las acciones de Internet aún no se ha bloqueado, entonces habré perdido otra predicción - ya sea porque era temprano o simplemente mal. Creo, como dice Freeman Dyson, que es mejor equivocarse que ser vago.
El precio de acceso
Otro ejemplo de confundir el temporal permanente en la dinámica de Internet surge en el debate sobre la forma de acceso a Internet debe tener un precio. Yo digo que el acceso debe tener un precio para una velocidad dada por el mes y para el tráfico por el paquete.Yo respondo que la dinámica del mercado de acceso a Internet están empezando a dar resultados. Con el tiempo, no sólo habrá de medición de tráfico, pero incluso habrá descuentos para los paquetes de corta distancia. La libertad de elección entre alternativas en competencia (FOCACA) es nueva en las telecomunicaciones y recién ahora está empezando a kick in
Acceso residencial de banda ancha es, sin embargo, avanza con total independencia y tomará el resto de la Internet por sorpresa. Servidores de repente ser cuellos de botella de respuesta. O upstream circuitos de proveedores de servicios de Internet (ISP) tendrán que actualizar.
La implantación generalizada de las marcas comunitarias y DSLs traerá más sorpresas y apagado totalmente nuevas iteraciones hacia todo imprevistos Internets nueva generación. Por ejemplo, no sólo son las MC y DSLs alta velocidad en comparación con el dial-up módems telefónicos, también son siempre-sobre el acceso a Internet es más importante que la alta velocidad
Después de la Provisional
Con todo este entusiasmo por las MC y DSLs, a veces es difícil recordar que se trata de soluciones provisionales. Estamos lanzando la electrónica de salvar una gran cantidad de cobre hace años encadenan con fines preInternet. Cuanto antes podamos llegar a la siguiente generación de Internet totalmente óptico.Por supuesto, va totalmente óptica no tiene impacto inmediato en las aplicaciones: Estos pueden ser perseguidos por las distintas comisiones, por diferentes compañías, por los comités de los consumidores. El Internet fue utilizado por primera vez para la sesión del terminal remoto. A continuación, la transferencia de archivos, correo electrónico y grupos de noticias. Mucho tiempo después llegamos publicación en Web. Ahora hay commerce Web. ¿Y ahora?
-Bueno, como la banda ancha se ha implementado y los jefes de internet hacia la óptica de próxima generación, habrá mucho más el correo electrónico, mucho más commerce web, y así sucesivamente, pero ¿qué nuevas aplicaciones se desarrollará?
Después de teléfono, televisión. Protocolos de Internet y el ancho de banda necesitarán actualizar antes de la televisión se puede llevar bien, puede que inevitablemente se moverá a través de Internet. ¿Por qué? El Internet puede hacer de la televisión interactiva en darle un millón de canales. Y no me refiero a convertir su TV en un monitor de PC. Y no me refiero a llevar a la Internet en la televisión a través de Internet, en paquetes, utilizando los paquetes de Internet: TVoIP.
A veces el Internet evoluciona tanrápidamente que incluso las generaciones sucesivas en la misma capa de pasarse unos a otros.
Después de que? Yo diría que la telepresencia Internet. Habrá importantes sustituciones de comunicación para el viaje. Menos desplazamientos. Menos desplazamientos. Menos viajes de negocios aburrido para presionar la carne. Vamos a cable hasta nuestros hogares y (sobre todo) a alojar allí.Descubriremos que la escuela no es un edificio. Una escuela es una comunidad de aprendizaje. Ahora estamos luchando para conseguir el Internet en la escuela. Deberíamos estar planeando usar el Internet en lugar de escuelas.
Por último, disculpe mi francés, pero en este milenio, la Internet seguirá, si no completa, la tendencia mundial a largo plazo hacia un menor número de idiomas, la mayoría de los cuales ya son cosa del pasado. Inglés puede llegar a ser una nueva generación lingua franca de Internet (lo cual sería especialmente irritante para los franceses), pero China es más probable-o tal vez Marte.
Ingles
The Next-GenerationInternet
The first thing to understand about the next-generation Internet is that-parton my french-there ain’t one.
Yes, we have a once-in-a-lifetime triple carry to celebrate in our current counting of years. So the temptation is great to lay out some sort of spiffy new Millennial internet. The trouble is that the Internet was designed to evolve at many layers independently. So there ain’t no single next-gen Internet.
Sometimes the Internet evolves so rapidly that even successive generations on the same layer overtake one another. And sometimes it evolves so slowly that we mistake the temporary for permanent.
For a while, the stock marker was led to believe that on the internet you could give away everything just as long as you attracted eyeballs to sell to advertisers. Well, as I hope you saw during the crash of Monday, 8 November 1999, Wall Street Finally saw that Internet advertising can’t pay for everything. You have to have increasing revenues from access, transport, services, content, and transactions.
Of course, if the market for Internet stocks has not yet crashed, then I will have missed another prediction – either because I was early or just plain wrong. I do believe, as Freeman Dyson says, that it is better to be wrong that to be vague.
I counter that Internet access market dynamics are just beginning to play out. Eventually, not only will there be traffic metering, but there will even be discount for short-distance packets. Freedom of choice among competing alternatives (FOCACA) is new in telecommunications and is just now starting to kick in.
Broadband residential access is, however, proceeding quite independently and will take the rest of the Internet by surprise. Servers will suddenly be response bottlenecks. Or upstream Internet service provider (ISP) circuits will need upgrading.
The widespread deployment of CTMs and DSLs will bring other surprises and off entirely new iterations toward entirely unanticipated next-gen Internets. For example, not only are CTMs and DSLs high speed compared to dial-up telephone modems, they are also always-on Internet access is more important than high speed
Of course, going all-optical has no immediate impact on applications: These can be pursued by different committees, by different companies, by committees consumers. The Internet was first used for remote terminal login. Then file transfer, e-mail, and newsgroups. A long time later we got Web publishing. Now There’s Web commerce. Where next?
-Well, as broadband is deployed and the Internet heads toward all-optical, there will be a lot more e-mail, a lot more web commerce, and so on, but what new applications will develop?
After telephone, television. Internet protocols and band width will need upgrading before television can be carried well, be it inevitably will move to the Internet. Why? The Internet can make television interactive-give it a million channels. And I don’t mean turning your TV into a PC monitor. And I don’t mean carrying the Internet on television on the Internet, in packets, using Internet packets: TVoIP.
Sometimes The Internet Evolves So
After that? I’d say Internet telepresence. There will be major substitutions of communication for travel. Less commuting. Less commuting. Less tedious business travel to press the flesh. We’ll wire up our homes and (mostly) stay there.
We’ll discover that a school is not a building. A school is a learning community. Now we are fighting to get the Internet into school. We should be planning to use the Internet instead of schools.
Finally, excuse my French, but in this millennium the Internet will continue, if not complete, the long-term worldwide trend toward fewer languages, most of which are already passé. English may turn out to be some next-gen Internet’s lingua franca (which would be especially galling to the French), but Chinese is more likely –or perhaps Martian.
Yes, we have a once-in-a-lifetime triple carry to celebrate in our current counting of years. So the temptation is great to lay out some sort of spiffy new Millennial internet. The trouble is that the Internet was designed to evolve at many layers independently. So there ain’t no single next-gen Internet.
Sometimes the Internet evolves so rapidly that even successive generations on the same layer overtake one another. And sometimes it evolves so slowly that we mistake the temporary for permanent.
For a while, the stock marker was led to believe that on the internet you could give away everything just as long as you attracted eyeballs to sell to advertisers. Well, as I hope you saw during the crash of Monday, 8 November 1999, Wall Street Finally saw that Internet advertising can’t pay for everything. You have to have increasing revenues from access, transport, services, content, and transactions.
Of course, if the market for Internet stocks has not yet crashed, then I will have missed another prediction – either because I was early or just plain wrong. I do believe, as Freeman Dyson says, that it is better to be wrong that to be vague.
The Price of Access
Another example of mistaking the temporary for permanent in Internet dynamics arises in the debate over how Internet access should be priced. I say that access should be priced for a given speed by the month and for traffic by the packet.I counter that Internet access market dynamics are just beginning to play out. Eventually, not only will there be traffic metering, but there will even be discount for short-distance packets. Freedom of choice among competing alternatives (FOCACA) is new in telecommunications and is just now starting to kick in.
Broadband residential access is, however, proceeding quite independently and will take the rest of the Internet by surprise. Servers will suddenly be response bottlenecks. Or upstream Internet service provider (ISP) circuits will need upgrading.
The widespread deployment of CTMs and DSLs will bring other surprises and off entirely new iterations toward entirely unanticipated next-gen Internets. For example, not only are CTMs and DSLs high speed compared to dial-up telephone modems, they are also always-on Internet access is more important than high speed
After the Interim
With all this excitement about CTMs and DSLs, it’s sometimes hard to remember that they are interim solutions. We are throwing electronics to salvage a lot of copper strung years ago for preInternet purposes. The sooner we can get on to the next-gen all-optical Internet.Of course, going all-optical has no immediate impact on applications: These can be pursued by different committees, by different companies, by committees consumers. The Internet was first used for remote terminal login. Then file transfer, e-mail, and newsgroups. A long time later we got Web publishing. Now There’s Web commerce. Where next?
-Well, as broadband is deployed and the Internet heads toward all-optical, there will be a lot more e-mail, a lot more web commerce, and so on, but what new applications will develop?
After telephone, television. Internet protocols and band width will need upgrading before television can be carried well, be it inevitably will move to the Internet. Why? The Internet can make television interactive-give it a million channels. And I don’t mean turning your TV into a PC monitor. And I don’t mean carrying the Internet on television on the Internet, in packets, using Internet packets: TVoIP.
Sometimes The Internet Evolves So
Rapidly that even successive
generations on the same layer
overtake one another.
We’ll discover that a school is not a building. A school is a learning community. Now we are fighting to get the Internet into school. We should be planning to use the Internet instead of schools.
Finally, excuse my French, but in this millennium the Internet will continue, if not complete, the long-term worldwide trend toward fewer languages, most of which are already passé. English may turn out to be some next-gen Internet’s lingua franca (which would be especially galling to the French), but Chinese is more likely –or perhaps Martian.
